The Chinese Alliance Has Grown Stronger, With US Allies Scrambling To Define This New Era of Combat

Where Have You Been?

If you have heard about the Chinese drills over Taiwan, involving dozens of airplanes and ships, you may be familiar with the phrase “Joint Sword.” This is how the exercise has been defined. The Chinese have engaged in this conduct more & more over the last few years. That has drawn concerns within the American intelligence & military, but has lacked definition as to what exactly they are seeing.

Meanwhile, the United States, with their primary ally Australia, have led similar drills referred to as “Talisman Saber.”

These alignments, while not always openly acknowledged, are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of this undeclared war.

Origins of Talisman Saber & Joint Sword

Talisman Saber

Talisman Saber originated as the name for a biennial military exercise co-led by the United States and Australia. Over time, the name has come to represent the broader coalition of nations supporting a Western-led, rules-based international order. The bloc includes NATO countries (United States, Canada, UK, Germany, France), Pacific allies (Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand), and emerging partners like India and the Philippines.

Joint Sword

The name Joint Sword derives from China’s military drills, notably around Taiwan, simulating blockades and offensive maneuvers. It symbolically represents a looser coalition of nations opposing Western dominance. This bloc includes China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, with indirect support or alignment from nations like Syria, Venezuela, and Belarus.

Currently these major sides are not regarded by themselves, nor the press, and certainly not the public – as being like the Axis & Ally powers of World Wars past.

However, the thin veil of rhetoric is presently all that separates the ongoing cover for the subterranean contests going on between these massive, aggressive nations.

Theaters of Conflict: A Global Overview

This conflict spans multiple regions, each with its own dynamics and stakes:

1. Publicly Acknowledged Theaters

• Russia/Ukraine: One of the most visible conflicts, with Russia leading a brutal invasion backed by Iranian drones and indirect Chinese support. The U.S. and NATO allies counter with military aid to Ukraine, making it a key battleground for both blocs. President Biden once said that if American boots were on the ground there that would “be World War 3.” Though Americans may view some kind of hard line between providing weapons, money, aid, and other resources as “boots on the ground,” when US drones were knocked out of the sky, it should have become clear that it was barely a proxy fight.
• Israel vs. Various Muslim Nations: Israel faces ongoing tensions with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, often with indirect involvement from Russia and Syria. The U.S. backs Israel as part of the Talisman Saber coalition. While Donald Trump has often branded himself some kind of peace-time President, his assassination of Soleimani would have been seen by Iran as an absolute declaration of war. It stands to reason that Congress is under ongoing pressure that they themselves may not even understand because of how long it’s been since that institution officially was tasked with declaring war.
• Taiwan: The looming threat of a Chinese invasion makes Taiwan a flashpoint. U.S. naval forces conduct freedom-of-navigation operations in the region, while China continues aggressive military drills. China has announced restrictions on shipments of certain materials to the United States as well. This is seen as proportional response to Trump’s promise of tariffs.

2. Less Publicized Theaters

• Korea: North Korea’s missile tests, supported by China and Russia, keep South Korea and Japan on edge. The U.S. maintains a strong military presence in the region, creating a constant state of tension. Recent tensions in the region have caused a dramatic series of events in response to the suggestion of North Korean sympathy in the nation. President Yoon declared martial law, was quickly struck down by their democratic checks & balances. Yoon attempted suicide, and is facing impeachment. Not since the Korean War of the 20th century has there been more pronouncement of support for the North from what Kim Jong Un routinely describes as a “puppet” of the United States.
• Syria: A long-standing proxy battleground where Russian and Iranian forces support Assad’s regime, while the U.S. backs Kurdish allies and conducts limited operations. The recent removal of Assad has caused a lot of conversation regarding the future of the region, which is still under assault.
• Africa: A strategic but underreported theater, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Russia’s Wagner Group, and U.S. counterterrorism efforts competing for influence. The continent is facing numerous horrors, most of which get ignored or glossed over by international media.

3. Naval Theaters and Subsea Threats

The oceans are increasingly contested, with vast stretches of critical infrastructure—particularly undersea internet cables—now at risk. The rise of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) and drone swarms represents a new frontier:

• UUV Threats: These systems can disrupt communication cables, sabotage energy infrastructure, or conduct covert surveillance. Russia’s Poseidon nuclear torpedo exemplifies the danger.
• The New Jersey Drone Affair: Recent reports of “SUV-sized” drones in swarms off New Jersey’s coast highlight potential drills closer to U.S. shores than usual. These sightings could point to Talisman Saber allies, particularly Israel and the U.S., conducting joint exercises with propeller-based drones, which are characteristic of their technology. Congressman Jeff Van Drew’s statements, though unconfirmed, suggest that the United States Congress can no longer fully deny the realities of war affecting the domestic territory of the US.

The Naval Shift: New Realities of Maritime Conflict

The seas are no longer dominated by traditional naval vessels alone.

Key trends include:

• Hybrid Naval Systems: The use of stealth submarines, hypersonic missiles, and drone swarms to project power far from home.
• UUVs: As highlighted in New Jersey, unmanned underwater vehicles represent a stealthy and versatile threat, capable of disabling critical infrastructure or engaging in offensive operations.
• Subsea Infrastructure at Risk: With 95% of global internet traffic reliant on undersea cables, the oceans have become a strategic battleground.

The potential presence of U.S.-Israeli drills off New Jersey underscores the shifting focus to defending critical infrastructure at home, not just abroad. American government is both monolithic in the federal government, and comedically known for improperly interdepartmental communications. That can lead to genuine misunderstandings. Most people in American culture believe that our government is so powerful that nothing escapes its comprehension. That transforms their ineptitude into overthought conspiracy theories, rather than genuine calls for change in their response.

Leadership Dynamics and Strategic Postures

Talisman Saber: The Burden of Leadership

The U.S. leads the Talisman Saber bloc, often at the cost of flexibility. The current administration under Joe Biden faces domestic challenges, inconsistent leadership, and overextension in multiple theaters. Donald Trump has not acknowledged anything about our Navy, besides attending the Army/Navy game(s) over the years. This transition back to a Trump administration will not deter our adversaries one iota.

Joint Sword: Flexible Alignment

In contrast, Joint Sword nations—China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran—operate with greater strategic patience. Leaders like Xi, Putin, and Kim balance their goals and take turns leading, creating an adaptable and cohesive bloc. They fight, and die – together.

A Call to Action: Defense from the Inside Out

To counter the Joint Sword bloc, the U.S. must:

1. Fortify Internal Resilience:
   • Strengthen cybersecurity to protect critical infrastructure.
   • Address domestic social and economic vulnerabilities to reduce susceptibility to hybrid warfare.
2. Enhance Naval Defense:
   • Develop counter-UUV technologies.
   • Secure subsea communication cables.
3. Focus Resources Strategically:
   • Prioritize key theaters like the Indo-Pacific and Europe while avoiding overextension.
   • Deepen alliances with reliable partners, particularly in the Pacific.

World War 3 Is “Ancient” History

Biden pre-emptively declared World War 3 when American “boots” i.e. drones were shot down in Russia. The truth is World War 3 began during the period most people call the “Cold War.” It is an immature view of the world to canonically organize World War this way. At what point do you admit that World War is occurring even if our Presidents & Congress refuse to admit it?

The blocs of Talisman Saber and Joint Sword represent a new global reality, with battles playing out in proxy theaters, undersea, and even within domestic borders. It is currently unknown how much direct conflict these forces have seen in the water, but it is my presumption that those losses are catastrophic. Unthinkable to many. How could it be, that America is fighting China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran in direct engagements without reports of it? 

Because most people don’t go to Davy Jones’ Locker and come back to tell the tale.

Recognizing the scope and stakes of this conflict is essential to navigating the challenges ahead. As the conflict crystallizes, it is critical for the U.S. and its allies to adapt, focusing not on overstretching themselves but on fortifying their strengths and defending their interests at home and abroad.